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Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season
Only June 01 2014 00:00:00 until the Atlantic hurricane season starts... Future Start Two months until 2014. I'll make my predictions once 2013 is over with. Betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:02, October 28, 2013 (UTC) : Now that the 2013 Atlantic season is done, I'll give out my pre-season predictions: 9-14 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-3 majors. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 00:40, December 17, 2013 (UTC) ::: HAHAHA, LOL HAPPY NEW YEAR LOL (you should see the Google Doodle LOL the 3 was out of breath) London and sydney fireworks was AWESOMEEEE Susanna Reid said it was meant to taste of strawberries XD ANYWAY... Lemme see... 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 majors. “i liek turtlez 02:22, January 1, 2014 (UTC) :::: Happy new year to you too! Yeah, that Google doodle looks pretty cool...in fact, it's gotta be one of the best doodles I've seen in a while. I'm still going to go with my above predictions, and I'll update them in March or April. It's also a good time to remind everyone to edit when you're at your best or you will do things like this, [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven']][[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|'09876']] 20:00, January 1, 2014 (UTC) Here are my Atlantic basin predictions: 8''' tropical depressions, '''7 named storms, 3''' hurricanes, '''1 major hurricane, 17.50 named storm days, 4.50 hurricane days, 0.5 major hurricane days, and an ACE of 55 (give or take 10). AndrewTalk To Me 01:46, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : It's time to update my predictions, I'm now thinking 8-13 named storms, 2-5 'hurricanes, and '''0-2 '''major hurricanes. I've lowered my predictions slightly due to incoming El Nino, which could quiet down the Atlantic this year. On June 1 (the start of the season), I'll issue another forecast, and my final predictions will come during mid-season. Steve820 21:04, April 5, 2014 (UTC) : 9 ts might be 7 if a super El Niño develops 3 hurricanes at most and 1 single major or not like last year. If 2013 was a dissappointment this might be as well. I am becoming crazy with all these hurricane seasons.Allanjeffs 01:11, April 10, 2014 (UTC) Not sure this is bad or not.--Isaac829 23:46, April 15, 2014 (UTC) :They'll still be invests, just no more ATCF updates prior to advisory time. We'll have to wait for the advisory to actually come out. I don't know why the NHC is doing this. It's the media's problem, not there's. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 02:05, April 16, 2014 (UTC) :I might say even though I hate this news I understand their case.Many people jump the gun including me sometimes when there is a renumber,So I believe they are trying to teach the media and bloggers to be more calm and not jump the gun.Allanjeffs 06:06, April 17, 2014 (UTC) The season is starting in 29 days! Can't wait to see what this year's Atlantic season will have in store! :) Steve820 20:56, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :15 more days! Steve820 20:07, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :Wow,I have been so busy with life I haven't been tracking these things, some recent findings have shocked me: the retirement of Ingrid suprised me. I was drinking tea while I read that NOW I NEED A NEW KEYBOARD :P (JK). On the other hand I'm not surprised by the retirement of Manuel. (I'm getting off topic, I should probably put this on last year's archive). Also, I think we might have another storm in May this year. I just have a feeling. :Another example of a surprise (late) discovery to me: Everything below me!leeboy100 (talk) 23:50, May 19, 2014 (UTC) ::As everyone cheers on Amanda in the EPAC, I would like to point out our first candidate for a tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic. Per Jeff Masters, GFS forecasts the MJO to increase thunderstorm activity in the Western Caribbean on the week of June 1, prompting potential development around the Yucatan. However, this does '''not mean 2014 will be active in any way. Just take a look at inactive 1968, which had Abby and Candy develop in the same general region in June. AndrewTalk To Me 18:36, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::The countdown continues... 6 more days until the season starts! Hopefully we'll see a storm in the western Caribbean during the week of June 1, that'll mark a very early start to the season. However, this season should be inactive due to El Nino. It's still not out of the question we could get a re-1992 though, in which we have a inactive season but there is one extremely destructive storm (remember Hurricane Andrew?). In fact, there's a tiny chance we could even get a re-Katrina this season, and that won't be good. That's why we need to be prepared every season, just in case a devastating disaster strikes New Orleans or something. Steve820 21:05, May 26, 2014 (UTC) :::4 days left... Steve820 23:59, May 28, 2014 (UTC) :::3 more days! Steve820 00:18, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::2 days left!! :D Steve820 22:57, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::less than 1 day left!!!!!! leeboy100 (talk) 17:24, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::There's a cluster of storms in the Gulf of Mexico, probably won't develop, but it's close to where I live and could bring rain (which we don't need any more of) to my area :::leeboy100 (talk) 17:32, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::::And the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (well, 1 hour, 18 minutes ago) in UTC. Might see that GoM invest the models were predicting develop into Arthur in about a week or so. Ryan1000 01:19, June 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::Hopefully we'll see an Arthur during the next week or so. I predict this season will be somewhat inactive to near-average because of that El Nino. My updated forecast for this season calls for 9-12 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 1''' major hurricane. Anyway, happy hurricane season!! Woohoo! Let's celebrate the start of the season with a bang! Steve820 03:16, June 1, 2014 (UTC) The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is now open!--Isaac829 04:02, June 1, 2014 (UTC) Re-analysis Not completely related to 2014, but some notable reanalysis for the Atlantic has now taken place. Camille of 1969 had 900 mbars at landfall, but winds were downed to 175 mph. Audrey of 1957 was actually a cat 3 at landfall in LA (120 mph), not a cat 4, and that also makes it 2nd to Alma of 1966 as the strongest June hurricane on record in the Atlantic, one of only two June major hurricanes (the first storm of 1945 was downgraded to a cat 2 in reanalysis), and she remains the strongest June landfall. Neither the 1945 or 1949 atlantic hurricane seasons had two cat 4 U.S. landfalls, as the hurricanes that hit Texas those years were downgraded to a cat 3 (1945) and 2 (1949) upon landfall. The 1947 Fort Lauterdale hurricane was not a cat 5 according to reanalysis, but instead a strong cat 4, same with Hurricane Dog of 1950, both of which were really 145 mph major hurricanes. Hurricane King of 1950 was upgraded to a 130 mph category 4 hurricane upon landfall in Miami, but Hurricanes Baker and Charlie of 1950 were revised to be cat 2's, not 3's, so 1950's former 8 major hurricane record is now down to 6, so 2005 and 1961 now hold a tied record of 7 major hurricanes. 1950 also had a lot of unnamed tropical storms that weren't discovered operationally, so their ACE/storm total is a lot lower than it once was. ''Ryan1000'' 16:11, April 2, 2014 (UTC) :Unusual discoveries. Ryan, one fact you missed was with the added storms, 1949's September ties with 2002, 2007, and 2010 for the most active one in terms of total storms. AndrewTalk To Me 11:57, April 4, 2014 (UTC) :::Forgot to post this before, but the link for those changes is a blog post from Dr Masters here. ''Ryan1000'' 09:20, May 23, 2014 (UTC) September 05L.DOLLY 97L-99L.INVEST There's something new in the middle of the Atlantic and it's a disorganized tropical wave. 0/20 at this moment and might gradually develop too. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 22:02, August 24, 2014 (UTC) : Steven, this was actually invest'd when it came up on NHC (see WUnderground for more), and it should follow in Cristobal's footsteps in the long run, heading towards the northern Lessers, near the Bahamas, then north and out to sea. Hopefully our luck keeps up with this too...Ryan1000' 00:27, August 25, 2014 (UTC) : 0%/30% Might become Dolly but the models are also predicting a strong tropical wave of Africa to come in 5 days which might take the name and there is also a dying piece of a cold front that may make it to the gulf and take a name. We will see.Allanjeffs 13:35, August 25, 2014 (UTC) ::I'm also predicting a possible Dolly from this, but another tropical wave starting to be mentioned on the 5-day outlook might very well beat it (see below).--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:11, August 26, 2014 (UTC) ::0/20 at this moment.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:54, August 26, 2014 (UTC) :::Now 0/10 and crossing the Windwards, it will probably become something by the time it reaches the western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:47, August 28, 2014 (UTC) :::It's been moving pretty rapidly since it's now entering the western Caribbean and it's percentages are now 10/30. Guys, we could see Dolly out of this! Why am I chatting with myself in this section?--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:15, August 30, 2014 (UTC) :::Yeah I am confident it will get a name but I am not sure if it will reach hurricane status it might pull a Fernando and try to intensify until landfall.Allanjeffs 05:29, August 30, 2014 (UTC) :::::Guess we've gotten bored since the tropics went quiet worldwide yesterday, the first time in a while that no storms were active worldwide on that day. I expect this to organize in the BoC in the next two days, but expect nothing past TS intensity. A re-Fernand(o) is most likely. 'Ryan1000' 18:31, August 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Yeah, I've also getting a bit bored of the tropics lately. I believe we might see a tropical storm Dolly that would peak around 50-60 mph in the BOC, similar to Fernand.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 18:55, August 30, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Has 97L been destroyed by Hispaniola's terrain? AndrewTalk To Me 01:50, August 31, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Yes, it did. The new AOI is a tropical wave west of the destroyed 97L.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:18, August 31, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::This was never destroy. 97L and 99L are practically the same. Does anyone here remember Alex 10? It was 92L then de-activated then re-activated as a entire new system (different LLC but same overall system). Same thing with 97L/99L. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:23, August 31, 2014 (UTC) A tropical wave emerging off Africa is at 0/20. If the above becomes Dolly then this might be Edouard, or it might be the other way around.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:11, August 26, 2014 (UTC) : Now 0/40. Could develop into Dolly if the above doesn't be named first.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:55, August 26, 2014 (UTC) : I am expecting this to develop into Dolly and at least become a cat 2. Really expecting a major. Allanjeffs 05:27, August 27, 2014 (UTC) ::If this is gonna be a major then let it be Edouard. Unlike Dolly, Edouard's been a major before (1996), but that was Edouard's only run as a hurricane out of five tries, while Dolly is two for three (only the 2002 incarnation didn't reach hurricane strength). That being said, if Dolly and/or Edouard become(s) (a) hurricane(s), it will be the first time that the first four or five storms of an Atlantic season reached hurricane strength since 1977, which pulled it off with Anita, Babe, Clara, Dorothy, and Evelyn. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:41, August 27, 2014 (UTC) :::Still 0/40, I'm actually hoping for Dolly out of this because to me Dolly sounds like a strong storm name.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:50, August 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::Off the TWO, that surprised me because I thought it would possibly develop. I guess not!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:16, August 30, 2014 (UTC) Its now 99l. This is not the same as 97L because 97L went into Hispanola and the area west of 97L was dubbed as 99L it is up to 20% for the next two days and 40% for the next 5. Allanjeffs 03:59, August 31, 2014 (UTC) :It seems to be holding on real nicely, even though thunderstorm activity is fairly disorganized, and it is about to slam into the Yucatan. However, once it emerges into the GOM, it will have moist air, moderate shear, and SST's nearing 30C. Given how storms like Fernand last year and Bret/Gert/Jose in 2005 came together, I am expecting a tropical storm from 99L. Northern Mexico would likely get a direct hit from this, and there could be substansial impact if 99L tries to Jose (2005) out. AndrewTalk To Me 01:49, August 31, 2014 (UTC) ::Is this really the same system as the tropical wave that was just emerging off Africa a few days ago? Allan, it seems like you posted this invest under the wrong AOI. There's absolutely no way a system can move across the Atlantic so quickly and land in the western Caribbean! This invest has to be a new AOI that never been mentioned before, because like we all know, it's a seperate system from 97L, the one that got destroyed by Hispaniola. Anyways, I believe we will see a Tropical Storm Dolly out of this that will peak around 60 mph in the BOC.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:21, August 31, 2014 (UTC) :: No, Steve you are correct I was refering of the system that form south of Jamaica and west of 97L which it move west northwest and make 97L to crash into Hispañola.Allanjeffs 03:59, August 31, 2014 (UTC) ::::I had the feeling there was something odd between this and 97L, this is a completely different storm. Anyways, chances are up to 50% for 5 days, it's pretty likely this will become Dolly in the BoC. I expect a peak of around 60-70 mph. 'Ryan1000' 10:43, August 31, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Now at 50%/60%. It's very likely this will become something in the BoC, but don't expect anything more than a re-Fernand in intensity. I've also updated this header to include this as a mix of both, this actually was the same as 97L, the former was just deactivated then reactivated as 99L. And from here on out, it'll be a September storm. 'Ryan1000' 00:17, September 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::A low pressure area is already present in 99L over the Yucatan, it just needs water and more outflow. Also, Belize and Mexico are getting drenched from this invest. AndrewTalk To Me 02:15, September 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::I doubt it when it pass just to the north of me it only let half an hour of light rain. Which sucks because most of Central America is suffering from severe drought. The authorities have been cutting electricity for five hours in Honduras at different times because the dams can sustain the public. An unless we get rain they are going to be more hours. Allanjeffs 05:06, September 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Well, Allan, that's what I read from JM's blog. Anyway, 99L is just about to emerge into the Bay of Campeche, and it will be able to organize even more into likey a TS within the next day. Recon is planned to investigate the invest later today. Also, even if 99L does not develop, much of Mexico will see some heavy rainfall over the next few days. Chances of development are now '''60%' for the next 48 hours and 70% for the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 09:27, September 1, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Five It's now a depression and forecast to strengthen to Tropical Storm Dolly before landfall near Tampico, Mexico.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 23:18, September 1, 2014 (UTC) :What is the NHC even tracking? Satellite images show the circulation way farther north than where they've got it pined currently. Supportstorm (talk) 23:37, September 1, 2014 (UTC) :::It's got no more than two days, if that, to become Dolly before hitting Mexico. The NHC currently expects it to become a 45 mph storm, but it could get a little stronger than that, like Fernand of last year, before landfall. I would not expect a hurricane from this though, a strong tropical storm is most likely at best. Ryan1000 00:14, September 2, 2014 (UTC) ::::(edit conflict) Goddammit I was really hoping for that hot streak of hurricanes to continue, but oh well. This could still cause some localized nasty flooding. Like Eric would always say: Beware the first storm of September!!!! Though I'm not quite sure how the adage is going to hold up this year :/ --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:24, September 2, 2014 (UTC) WHAT HAVE YOU DONE, JOLENE?!? Please don't hit Tennessee... :o “i liek turtlez 01:02, September 2, 2014 (UTC) : Flooding in Mexico could cause some moderate impacts, though it shouldn't be any worse than Fernand was last year. Let's hope Eric's great adage doesn't hold true for this one. Mexico doesn't need another beating, 2013 and 2010 were more than enough for them. Ryan1000 02:43, September 2, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dolly She is here and expected to strength until landfall might become a 65mph storm before landfall there is even an outside chance of a hurricane. September base on the models looks poise to be active but we will see.--Allanjeffs 06:18, September 2, 2014 (UTC) : Expect a strong TS at most before landfall sometime tomorrow. Hopefully Mexico won't get too much flooding from this. Ryan1000 11:45, September 2, 2014 (UTC) Look what someone wrote on the Net about Hurricane Dolly! LOL! 'I can't hear 'Hurricane Dolly' without thinking of Dolly Parton. Or maybe a sheep. Or maybe a sheep dressed as Dolly Parton. Supposing there is a Hurricane Dolly, it had better be absolutely fabulous, with a disproportionately (and possibly artificially) large western wall. All news segment music intros had better include a chorus of “Jolene.” And Jim Cantore better be clinging to a sign post, winds bearing down on him, making a “9 to 5” reference.' Now Mexico, get ready! JOLENE is about to unleash her army or cloned sheep from 9 to 5!!! “i liek turtlez 16:36, September 2, 2014 (UTC) : It looks like Dolly missed its chance to become a strong TS or hurricane. Peaked at 50 mph, now down to 45 mph and expected to make landfall tonight. Norbert will last a while longer, but it's not forecast to become a hurricane either. Ryan1000 21:29, September 2, 2014 (UTC) : Whoop-dee-doo, we finally reached the 'D' named storm, and it looks like Dolly Parton (I'm a big country music fan myself, Liz, and I love "Jolene". Haven't heard it in years though) will break our hurricane streak. This season is boring. But, unlike last year, this season has an excuse (El Nino) and we've already had more hurricanes. Also since this storm is going to hit Mexico that means that three out of the four Dollys we've had hit Mexico (or "Meheeco" as others like to pronounce it) (Oops forgot to sign earlier) leeboy100 (talk) 00:55, September 3, 2014 (UTC) :: Looks like our hurricane streak has finally been broken. Dolly will be the first storm of this year's Atl season to not become a hurricane. Anyways, let's hope Dolly Parton won't be a destructive Mexican storm!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 22:31, September 2, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolly Now only a remnant low. Eric's adage may hold up this year if Dolly did substantial impact "Beware the first storm of September" leeboy100 (talk) 21:11, September 3, 2014 (UTC) :Probably not leeboy. Dolly might have caused some flooding here and there but it's unlikely this will be too severe for Mexico. This'll probably end up being a re-Barry in terms of impacts. Ryan1000 22:52, September 3, 2014 (UTC) ::Yeah, it'll probably we a re-Barry or something. I don't think it was so destructive. Farewell, Dolly!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:05, September 4, 2014 (UTC) ::Gone. And now I agree, this probably will be a re-Barry. Oh well, maybe next year the adage will hold up. Hopefully, it won't be too destructive though if it does. ::leeboy100 (talk) ''00:43, September 4, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Azores Subtropical Low AoI: Azores Subtropical Low Could become a Grace/Laura like storm. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 03:27, September 2, 2014 (UTC) :Still not on the NHC TWO. I really don't think it'll become anything.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:08, September 4, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Coming off the African Coast AOI: Coming off the African Coast Currently 10/30, I believe we'll possibly see Edouard from this. Conditions seem conductive for it to possibly develop.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:08, September 4, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Even though we only have 2 named storms so far, we're already in August and I think it's about time we start this section with my retirement predictions: *Arthur: 5% - Early-season east coast hurricane but it barely caused much impacts. Because of this the name is likely to stay. *Bertha: 1% - Very impressive in that it strengthened to a hurricane even though it was so disorganized, but I doubt many impacts occurred in Lesser Antilles and retirement is very unlikely. *Cristobal: 5% - 7 fatalities according to Wikipedia and unknown damage, it might have a tiny shot at retirement but I really don't think that would happen. Most likely he's coming back in 2020 *Dolly: ? - Still active (Last updated by --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • at 22:33, September 2, 2014 (UTC)) : Still seems a bit early in ATL for retirements...if we get something a little more notable, then I'll begin mine, but there's not much to say right now. ''Ryan1000 02:48, August 7, 2014 (UTC) Normally I'm against doing these with a season that's only two storms in, but I'm bored right now and this year's AHS has been moving at a snail's pace, so I'll post my predictions to pass the time :P *Arthur: 9% - Made for a boisterous start to the season, but fortunately wasn't too severe. *Bertha: 6% - Wasn't bad enough, though meteorologically interesting. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:18, August 18, 2014 (UTC) Oki doki Loki! *Arthur = 10% That aardvark was too nice. Next! *Bertha = 10% Only Alex Salmond would think that storm demolished everywhere. *Cristobal = 6% u wot m8 *Dolly = ?% Let's see what JOLENE is up to... “i liek turtlez 14:49, August 24, 2014 (UTC)